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Guest Post by – Daniel Keohane:
In drawn out no deal Brexit, Dublin would probably have put up customs checks at Irish border …
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Hi,

In drawn out no deal Brexit, Dublin would probably — very reluctantly – have put up customs checks at Irish border

if large quantities of prohibited goods come into the EU single market via Northern Ireland to Ireland, Brussels would likely have to pressure Dublin to put up a land border
if large quantities of prohibited goods come into the EU single market via Northern Ireland to Ireland, Brussels would likely have to pressure Dublin to put up a land border
Daniel Keohane Published: 02:32 Wednesday 05 September 2018

Jacob Rees-Mogg has an easy solution for the border question complicating UK withdrawal negotiations with the EU.

Following a meeting with EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier in Brussels this week, the pure-Brexit Conservative MP said: “the answer on the Irish border is simply not to put an Irish border in.”
Jacbo Rees-Mogg has previously claimed that the UK would not have to put up a border in the event of a no deal Brexit, whereby the UK would trade mainly based on World Trade Organisation rules
Jacbo Rees-Mogg has previously claimed that the UK would not have to put up a border in the event of a no deal Brexit, whereby the UK would trade mainly based on World Trade Organisation rules Jacbo Rees-Mogg has previously claimed that the UK would not have to put up a border in the event of a no deal Brexit, whereby the UK would trade mainly based on World Trade Organisation rules
If the EU wants to put up a border, so the argument runs, that is up to them. UK Prime Minister May rebuked this argument in her Belfast speech in July: “We can’t solve it on our own, but nor can we wash our hands of any responsibility for it.” But what would happen if the UK left the EU without a withdrawal agreement?
Mr Rees-Mogg has previously claimed that the UK would not have to put up a border in the event of a no deal Brexit, whereby the UK would trade mainly based on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.
However, Pascal Lamy, former head of the WTO, told RTÉ in July that the idea there would be no border on the island of Ireland in a no deal Brexit is “pie in the sky.” Lamy added that, outside of the EU, there are no borders anywhere in the world without any physical infrastructure.
Even though WTO practice requires its members to carry out customs checks, no one knows what London would do in a no deal scenario, partly because of febrile Brexit politics at Westminster. If the UK did not introduce customs checks, other WTO members could file a case against the UK for violating the global trading system. Resolving such disputes would likely take a long time, but hardly the international law-flouting image the newly “Global Britain” would want to project.
The Irish premier Leo Varadkar. A no deal Brexit is potentially a nightmare scenario for Ireland, particularly as it could lead to a rift between Dublin and its EU partners ' if Brussels insisted on land border checks and Ireland refused
The Irish premier Leo Varadkar. A no deal Brexit is potentially a nightmare scenario for Ireland, particularly as it could lead to a rift between Dublin and its EU partners ‘ if Brussels insisted on land border checks and Ireland refused The Irish premier Leo Varadkar.
A no deal Brexit is potentially a nightmare scenario for Ireland, particularly as it could lead to a rift between Dublin and its EU partners ‘ if Brussels insisted on land border checks and Ireland refused What would Dublin do?
The Irish government says that it does not intend to put up a border in the event of a no deal Brexit. It also expects the same of the UK, based on the political commitment in the backstop agreement last December, even though that would carry no legal weight if there were no UK-EU withdrawal agreement.
That sounds similar to the Rees-Mogg line, but a lot would depend on how acrimonious a no deal Brexit would be. In that scenario, the EU would classify the UK as an outsider, which would automatically create legal constraints for EU-UK cooperation.
Moreover, there would be little political incentive for the EU to carry on with frictionless trade with the UK, as no deal would mean London had reneged on concluding the withdrawal agreement, including the border backstop, citizens’ rights, and the ‘Brexit bill’.
What might be possible is that the EU and UK would introduce customs checks, but neither Ireland nor the UK would do so along the land border, at least for a time. Instead, they could both carry out checks mainly at sea ports. So East-West rather than North-South.
EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier. The other 26 Eu countries have so far shown impressive solidarity with Ireland(AP Photo/Virginia Mayo)
EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier.
The other 26 Eu countries have so far shown impressive solidarity with Ireland(AP Photo/Virginia Mayo) EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier.
That might work de facto for a short time, even if not entirely de jure. But it would be an ad hoc solution, that essentially depended on a no deal situation not lasting very long, say a few weeks. This is probably what Dublin hopes, that a land border is de facto not needed.
But if a no deal situation lasted longer, say six months or more, the intellectual flaw in Ireland’s (and Mr Rees-Mogg’s) position may be exposed. The flaw is that if large quantities of prohibited goods come into the EU single market via Northern Ireland to Ireland, Brussels would likely have to pressure Dublin to put up a customs land border.
Dublin might prefer to wait for London to do so first, for political blame reasons, but the result would be the same. In other words, a no deal Brexit is potentially a nightmare scenario for Ireland, for lots of reasons, but particularly as it could lead to a rift between the Irish government and its EU partners — if Brussels insisted on land border checks and Dublin refused.
This would be the worst of all worlds for Irish diplomacy, as its position has depended on the impressive solidarity shown by the other 26 EU governments towards Ireland. In addition, Dublin hardly wants a rift with Brussels over implementing EU and international rule of law.
The hope is that a no deal Brexit scenario would not last long. However, the EU would still insist on concluding the withdrawal agreement before starting trade talks with the UK
The hope is that a no deal Brexit scenario would not last long. However, the EU would still insist on concluding the withdrawal agreement before starting trade talks with the UK 
However, the Irish government is unlikely to change its public line. This is partly for domestic political reasons, partly because Dublin does not want to give any impression that a London U-turn on the December backstop agreement is acceptable.
In a drawn out no deal scenario, the Irish government would probably — very reluctantly – have to follow EU and WTO procedures and introduce customs checks.
That would be a very difficult domestic sell for Dublin. But it would be in Ireland’s strategic interest to avoid a rift with the other 26 EU governments. Ireland could contrast itself to a no deal Brexit-ed UK by sticking to the rules, or at least be seen to be trying to stick to the rules – even if they were truly unpalatable.
The hope is that a no deal Brexit scenario would not last long. However, the EU would still insist on concluding the withdrawal agreement before starting trade talks with the UK.
The reality, therefore, is that if the UK crashed out of the EU with no deal, it would have to return to the table eventually if it wanted a trade deal, from a weaker negotiating position.
Yo view the original article CLICK HERE
Daniel Keohane, a Senior Researcher at the Centre for Security Studies in Zurich

 

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With an avg. 1.2M voters per MEP & Britain with 16% of EU GDP and 13% of the EU’s population yet  having only 8% (if united) say, whilst holding less than 3% of the various offices within the EU Do note The EUropean Parliament has no ability to make policy and has a Commission of unelected bureaucrats, thus clearly the EU is not even a pretence of being a democracy despite its protestations!
Do note that many senior apparatchicks and even elected politicians speak openly of the ‘Post Democratic era’ with no sense of shame or irony and in complete contempt of the so called electorate – yet The EU & many of its vassal States/Regions are all too willing to slaughter people in Sovereign States, to impose The EU’s chosen brand of democracy on them!

Now as President Junker announced in his ‘State of the union’ speech 2017 the aim is to create an EU military force and centralise ever more of the decision making and control!

The imposition of a Government and policies upon its vassal regions such as the peoples of Greece shows just how far from being a democracy the EU is.

Just follow the recent EU display of so called ‘Democracy’:
France and the Netherlands voted against the proposed EU constitution in 2005, only to have those votes ignored.
Ireland voted against ratifying the Lisbon treaty in 2008, but then later under pressure & threats had to change its mind.
Greece for me was the final straw. It became clear in 2015 that it didn’t matter which way the Greek people voted. The birthplace of democracy had become its tomb. That was enough. I was going to vote to leave the EU when the chance came.

No political party of any significance in Britain took active steps to achieve a Referendum – the task was eventually taken by an Indipendent West Midlands MEP Nikki Sinclaire who personally launched and funded the gathering of a petition of 225,000 signatures delivered to Parliament via Downing Street, thus forcing a debate in the House of Commons on an IN/OUT Referendum, which led to David Cameron’s first consequential rebellion.

It was due to winning that debate, officially opposed by every party including Ukip that David Cameron was forced to include a promise of an IN/OUT Referendum in the Tory Manifesto at the next General Election. The rest is history & despite no Parliamentary Party backing the OUT vote & Government spending Millions of Pounds of public money leafletting & promoting ‘Project Fear’ to try to persuade the British people to Remain just as they had at the first Referendum in 1975 – This time their lies and threats were not heeded and in the largest vote in British history Britain voted by a clear majority to Leave.

Nikki Sinclaire’s OUT result left Cameron & his co conspirator Osborne with no option but to resign, sadly some of the other traitors have remained to try to hinder progress to BreXit, aided by their corrupt allies in the EU and \eu funding and bribes!

There will be little or no change in Britain’s economic position, if we leave the EU, using a better negotiated, customised & updated version of the ‘Norway Model’ as a stepping stone to becoming a full member of the Eropean Economic Area, where all will benefit, as we secure trade relations with the EU’s vassal regions, with an EFTA style status and can trade and negotiate independently on the global stage, as members of The Commonwealth and the Anglosphere.

This is of course dependent on a modicum of intelligence on the part of Britain’s politicians and negotiators but it also requires the integrity of Parliament to uphod democracy and the integrity of EU politicuians & apparchicks to act ethically and without their normal vindictive mallice.

I believe Leaving the EU will be turned into something of a rough ride by the ignorant and the corrupt but I have no doubt that in the long run Leaving the EU will prove conclusively to be in the best interests of Britain and our true allies. I also believe that Britain leaving the EU will prove to be the catalyst to great changes within the EU and hopefully its democratisation as without great changes it is indubitably doomed.

Do not overlook the fact that politicians have plotted and schemmed since the 1950s and we have actually been vassals of the EU, when it was still using the aesopian linguistics and calling itself The Common Market in the early 1970s, a name the bureaucrats arbitrarily changed to EUropean Union in the early 1990s as they worked towards their long term goals of an ever closer centrally controlled Political and economic Union with its own anthem, currency, flag and rigid central control by its self appointed bureacrats towards a new Empirate –

It will take many years to rectify the mess our political class got us into and we have no other peacefull means by which to extricate ourselves than to depend on that self same self styled elite, who all too often forget they work for us!

One huge benefit of BreXit will be that we can negotiate with bodies like the WTO, UN, WHO, IMF, CODEX and the like, directly, in our own interest and that of our partners around the world, in both the Commonwealth and the Anglosphere at large; rather than having negotiations and terms imposed by unelected EU bureacrats and their interpretation of the rules handed down, as if they were some great achievement of the EU’s!
The greatest change and benefit will be political, as we improve our democracy and self determination, with the ability to deselect and elect our own Government, with an improved Westminster structure, see >Harrogate Agenda<.
How we go about the process of disentangling our future wellbeing from the EU is laid out in extensive, well researched and immensely tedious detail see >FleXcit< or for a brief video summary CLICK HERE
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Posted by:
Greg Lance – Watkins
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Greg_L-W@BTconnect.com

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